I don't know why you're reacting to the parent comment as a criticism - it is just observation. I have spent a lot of time over the years in similar markets. A trivial example - "Will Hillary be the Democrat Nominee?" Yes/No market on PredictIt for the 2020 election.
Even though the market basically settled in 2019 as she missed filing deadlines, a whole group of conspiracy theorists in the "Yes" market descended in the comments, and there was 10-15% on "YES" even til the very last hours they closed the market, which was like a ~week or two before the actual election.
Every news event was interpreted by this group as a "sign" she was secretly running, and they provided their own sources. I was arbitraging this market for the whole year on any "new" hillary news, so paid very close attention to the discussion circles happening around it - I checked in after the market closed and many of the genuine "YES" people putting up as much money as they were able to concluded PredictIt was incorrect and that Hillary was still the "phantom" nominee. It would not at all surprise me if a few of them still believe she actually ran for president. They probably should have closed the market several months before, but they kept it open. If they had closed it at any reasonable point beforehand a huge chunk of the "YES" market would have lost their minds.
People are goofy and prone to conspiratorial thinking. If you want an example of something that there isn't a market for, but just an example of how much 2 groups of people's thinking can diverge - Ask 100 random people what happened to an ICE officer in minnesota that was involved in a shooting very recently.
Even though the market basically settled in 2019 as she missed filing deadlines, a whole group of conspiracy theorists in the "Yes" market descended in the comments, and there was 10-15% on "YES" even til the very last hours they closed the market, which was like a ~week or two before the actual election.
Every news event was interpreted by this group as a "sign" she was secretly running, and they provided their own sources. I was arbitraging this market for the whole year on any "new" hillary news, so paid very close attention to the discussion circles happening around it - I checked in after the market closed and many of the genuine "YES" people putting up as much money as they were able to concluded PredictIt was incorrect and that Hillary was still the "phantom" nominee. It would not at all surprise me if a few of them still believe she actually ran for president. They probably should have closed the market several months before, but they kept it open. If they had closed it at any reasonable point beforehand a huge chunk of the "YES" market would have lost their minds.
People are goofy and prone to conspiratorial thinking. If you want an example of something that there isn't a market for, but just an example of how much 2 groups of people's thinking can diverge - Ask 100 random people what happened to an ICE officer in minnesota that was involved in a shooting very recently.