The current government can still claim to have a democratic mandate. At least for the moment, it relies on the goodwill (even of its opponents) to at least pretend that elections matter.

If it loses a large number of supporters, and is forced to suspend even the illusion of democracy, a lot of things would change. It's hard to predict exactly what, but it would be ugly.

That's not to say that they won't. As you observe, they will do what they think they can get away with. But shutting down the entire Internet might be something that they can't get away with.