I think you are giving Russia too much credit. This is the same doctrine Russia used when invading Ukraine. I am sure all those agents and paid propagandists told their FSB and GRU superiors whatever they wanted to hear while pocketing most money for themself.
Putin is a gambler that has inherited lots of resources and wants to make high probability low risk bets. If he loses a round he goes double or nothing since he can do that a few times. Of course that potentially opens him up to ruinous catastrophic losses if confronted by a competent adversary. Then he will cry: "but my nukes....." and hopes everybody backs off.
As for propaganda I think they just throw everything at the wall and see what sticks. All is reactive post hoc information warfare unless there are meaningful consequences.
Btw to think that Russia would have taken any statement regarding NATO expansion seriously without it being written and ratified in a treaty is beyond comical.
Putin is a gambler that has inherited lots of resources and wants to make high probability low risk bets. If he loses a round he goes double or nothing since he can do that a few times. Of course that potentially opens him up to ruinous catastrophic losses if confronted by a competent adversary. Then he will cry: "but my nukes....." and hopes everybody backs off.
As for propaganda I think they just throw everything at the wall and see what sticks. All is reactive post hoc information warfare unless there are meaningful consequences.
Btw to think that Russia would have taken any statement regarding NATO expansion seriously without it being written and ratified in a treaty is beyond comical.