The defederation "wars" will end. People who want to be in walled garden instances, with their own sense of community, cut off from unpredictable sets of other users will have what they want. But I think most users will migrate to places where only the truly bad actor instances are cut off. I've already observed this from my old Tweeps. Defederation is way too blunt of a tool for most cases.
It will likely end as culture warring weirdos in their spectrum's echo chamber while normal people leave for commercial sites or go back to Twitter. Mastodon needs a culture of openness and general tolerance that it does not have and has made no real effort to foster.
