I think the real story was that China would take Hong Kong by force if there was no agreement, and by agreeing to a peaceful transfer Thatcher could make the transition more civilized.
Looking back, I think it worked quite well for as long as it did.
Deng Xiaoping famously told Thatcher that China could take Hong Kong in a day when Thatcher tried to work out how the UK can hang onto HK island (HK island was signed over to the UK in perpetuity while other parts of HK was a 99 years lease, IIRC). I think Thatcher did make the most of a weak hand. HK is definitely better off in a peaceful hand over than China taking it by force. I think a lot of us former Hong Kongers wished the autonomy had endured at least for the 50 years that was promised but we also knew there was no force behind that promise.
I also don't fault the British too much for a lack of true democracy after I read the unclassified diplomatic cables re: what Zhou Enlai said about taking 'positive action' (ie: invasion) if HK ever got self-rule, at least we got 1-man-1-vote. It sucks, but the British couldn't even defend Singapore from the Japanese.
I'd be curious to know what the Americans thought about all this. In a parallel universe it's part of the American sphere of influence, like Taiwan. A better universe.
I seem to remember some musings in 80s about a "Greater China" that unified Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore into confederation. Probably a pipe dream but interesting idea.
Including Singapore in that list is unusual. Singapore is not culturally East Asian, despite having a majority Chinese population. Unlike Hong Kong, Macau or Taiwan, it also has no history as a Chinese territory.
Also not known to most is that Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and the US all have larger Chinese populations than Singapore.
(though this seems a little focused on export controls)
but I'd love to have been a fly on the wall in whatever meetings American diplomats had with one another and with the various other parties (Hong Kong, China, and Britain).
It sounds like the US was pretty hands-off at the time, though. Maybe that's just the official position, but it's surprising. I suppose 90s optimism could have caused this behavior...
Now I imagine what would have happened instead, say, under an Eisenhower administration, with John Foster Dulles as secretary of state.... It's hard to say: They were much more aggressive (e.g. Iran, Korea, ...), but they were also trying to get the British out of places (the Suez Crisis, the subtext of The Quiet American, ...). At this point it all just becomes alternate history though...
Practically, Britain should just offer citizenship to Hong Kongers...
I wish there were freedom of movement within AUKUS + ASEAN (+ OAS?), as a block, like there is within the EU... Instead it's almost like the neo-empire has hukous. Which sucks. Just come out as an empire and let subjects get some benefits, like the freedom to live anywhere... Or, I don't know, maybe that would just result in Americanization of the world, which would be kind of tragic... Hmm... Well anyway, at least invite Hong Kongers in; it's the least you can do...
Hm, actually CUKCs used to be a thing (unfortunate acronym now in 2022):
(Sounds like the Commonwealth Immigrants Act 1962 should be repealed.)
Maybe this can all just be done in a bilateral way instead... Problem is, western countries have no incentive to bargain for looser visa regulations that let their people leave...
Still, it's nice to imagine a world where a person from Hong Kong or London or New York could freely move to any of the other cities...
Hm, maybe the collapse of national legitimacy and the rise of sanctuary cities (somewhat overhyped) paired with something more prosaic like sister cities could do this... Why can't a mayor have a foreign policy? Eric Adams or Sadiq Khan: "Hong Kongers are welcome here!" Hm...
How would such a league of city-states defend itself though? I mean, this is the problem in Hong Kong to begin with...
Hm...
Maybe we just need Mr. Lee's franchises... Make it real, people... If Mark Zuckerberg can get 15,000 engineers to try to build the Metaverse, surely we can raise an army to construct good things from cyberpunk...
> Practically, Britain should just offer citizenship to Hong Kongers...
Well, if the UK wanted to, they would have done it before 1997 but they chose to give the majority a chance to apply for a BNO passport which was literally a slap in the face. No right to live and work in the UK when you are a 'British National Overseas'.
Even when they let BNO passport holders apply for the right to live and work in the UK recently, they could pick and choose who they wanted to let in.
Looking back, I think it worked quite well for as long as it did.